Just two months ago when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
